A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
